Hurricane Season Will Be Normal-to-Below Normal, NOAA Forecasts
A storm that reaches 74 mph is considered a hurricane.
A hurricane with wind speeds of up to 111 mph or more are considered "major."
The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
So, this is all relatively good news. Of course, in this day and age of climate change and unpredictability, you never can tell.
Last year, the two Colorado forecasters gave Florida a 72 percent chance of getting hit by a major hurricane. Only Hurricanes Humberto and Ingrid emerged, and neither was ever a serious threat to Florida. The rest of the storms became tropical disturbances and storms, and the ones that did hit Florida were mainly just annoying, dumping a lot of rain on us
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