Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich Lead Florida Poll, but Bettors Go With Romney

Categories: Politics
With a month to go until Florida's GOP presidential primary, the latest poll shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich essentially tied and well ahead of the rest of the field.

For those who are putting money on Florida's GOP primary, though, they're picking Romney by a wide margin.

The News Service of Florida is reporting that TelOpinion Research just released a poll it conducted between December 15 and 19, still making it the most recent poll of the state.

That poll puts Romney at 27 percent, Gingrich at 26 percent, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul a distant third at 5 percent.

As is the national trend, respondents identifying as Tea Party supporters or more conservative picked Gingrich, but Romney led among those who identified as "somewhat conservative."

Over at Intrade, though, people are putting their money on Romney.

Bettors give Romney a 60 percent chance of winning the Florida primary, followed by Gingrich at 15 percent and Paul at nearly 8 percent.

The New York Times' Nate Silver also has a vote projection for Florida, estimating Gingrich will get a little over 48 percent of the vote, with Romney behind him at 26.5 percent and Paul again in a distant third at 7 percent. He's currently saying it's "too early" to declare anyone's chances of winning the state.

What's it all mean? Not too much -- that's why they actually count the votes.

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No matter how loyal you are to Ron Paul, the Intrade data is hard to explain away. This is not a poll. This is people putting down their hard earned money on the candidate they believe will win (not the candidate they like). In addition to the fact that these people are backing their predictions with hard cold cash, the volume of participants is much higher than the number of respondents surveyed in any poll. This makes the margin of error smaller. Opinion costs nothing, but bet against the wisdom of the market at your peril.

john james cale
john james cale

People bet on intrade based on polling data and their perceptions (most of which are media manufactured) ... if they believe the polls they will act accordingly. As for Gingrich doing worse on intrade than Romney in Fla despite similar poll numbers, it is well known that Gingrich is falling in the earlier states - and the media now says that Gingrich is in trouble. The truth is he was never in a very strong position.... at least so far as other metrics like individual donations showed. 

For a good example of a fake poll look no further than the latest CNN Iowa poll which (for the first time) only sampled Republicans (and not dems and inds) and thus produced a lead for Romney over Paul (which is contrary to the reality on the ground in Iowa).

I have been watching the polls versus other metrics for months now and it is now clear to me that many polls are outright fake. I did not believe this at first but after months of watching data I have come to the conclusion.

... like I said, just watch Ron Paul's numbers steadily rise as the actual vote comes closer and they have to cover their rear ends.


It is fitting for the CNN Iowa poll to only sample Republicans, because only Republicans can vote at the Caucus. When you see conspiracy every time events don't go your way, life turns into one big conspiracy. Intrade also allows the market to predict the national winner of the republican primary. The current prediction is far different than any of the polls because investors perform much more due diligence than just reading poll numbers. According to Intrade, Romney has a 77% chance to Ron Paul's 6% of being the republican nominee.

john james cale
john james cale

Lets watch Ron Paul's numbers creep up as the actual primary gets closer.... and the pollsters have to cover their rear ends .....these polls are fake. They tried this in Iowa and its backfiring on them.

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